The Norwegian Derby day at Øvrevoll is always the jewel in the crown, at least for us, when it comes to the Scandinavian racing season. We have taken a closer look at all the contenders in the Norwegian Derby 2021.
Norwegian Derby 2021!
We are doing things a little differently this time around, as galoppanalyse.no is not primarily about predictions or tips. The ability to be accurate about the past, is where we really have our edge. That’s what our performance figures does. To use these numbers that describes what have already happened, in an attempt to make some qualified assumptions about what is going to happen, is something others very well might be better at, than us.
Ideally, this information should have been presented in a form guide, such as one could find for horse races abroad. With race comments, relevant statistics, sectional times, and so on. This is information players lack here in Scandinavia, which makes our product less attractive to new players. It’s too hard to begin. Horse racing will always be one of the worst betting activities there is in terms of takeout/rake, but it doesn’t need to be the same guessing game as a casino game. That amazing feeling of finding the correct solution after solving a puzzle is something one could work with improving. For that you need richer information.
That form guide does not exist, yet, but we’ve found a way we can share some information anyway. We have first written some words about this year’s derby contenders, and then we have included a real treat for you. Something as rare as interactive horse racing information in Scandinavia! This allow you to choose a Derbyhorse in the drop down menu, and then the report will be updated with a full record from our database with every previous races this season in table form, and some extra reporting around the top figure and the last three performances. The software we use for these kind of reports is fairly new and not completely flawless yet, so until the next software update we have to accept that tables and visualizations do not look great from a mobile phone device. A laptop provides a bette experience, as of now.
PS! We expect hard competition between nations in this year’s Norwegian Derby Tipping Comp 2021 ! There is a lot at stake when Ledvolten.se w / friends seeks revenge after misfortunes on the Swedish Derby Day. Feel free to join in, follow the forum link above to get the rules; proposals must be in by 1 pm on race day! Just ask questions if you have them, e.g. if you need translations ! 🙂
Finally; the contenders in NORWEGIAN DERBY 2021
These horse analyzes are mainly done by Gard.
- Stroxx Carlras: Extremely impressive in his surprise win of the Swedish Derby 2021 – performed there something he had never been close to before. 18 lengths better than the june version of himself. If he runs up to this performance figure (125) once again, it will be an extremely difficult task for everyone in this field to stop him. But will he do it on turf, on another track, in anouther country, once again? Horse Trainer Rohbach Bonde, who has impressed many this year, has been slightly better statistics wise on the dirt track; though it’s decent in the turf races too. And with that out of the blue (literally!) performance at Jägersro, we have to worry a bit about the bounce-factor too – a theory we wrote a bit about here .
- Runaway Sue: This is a horse that seems to be an expert at stayer distance, as he gets here. Proven at turf, with a victory on this surface at Klampenborg earlier this year. Developed further throughout the summer and took things to another level at Jägersros dirt track. He has stabilized, and will now return to the turf. May be up for a new careerbest, and a surprising fight for one of the place positions.
- Checkered Ninja: Debuted late as a 3-year-old, and is very unexposed. Trainer Niels Petersen is a master at preparing his horses for the biggest tasks, but in this case it looks like he has to really pull a rabbit out of the hat. But weird things has happened before, and with horses as unexposed as this one, you never know. Never tested over this distance.
- Lot of Joy: Looks like an individual with great potential. She has been running on the dirt track all season, but started her career at the turf track at Øvrevoll. She has at least one respectable performance on the turf, and seems to handle it in a great way. Seems like she prefers stayer distance. Has still not won – but beaten by horses proven at a very high level. Have to improve a lot to catch up with Stroxx Carlras – and will need to to beat her own previous best performance. It’s also likely that she will lose some ground in the turns to Stroxx Carlras.
- My French Dream: A real Øvrevoll specialist that seems to handle both turf and dirt just as well. Came in fourth behind White Heart and Captain Chorus last time out, and need to develop further to fight for a top result here. In terms of profile, he is not bad, but should be a little too slow for this competition. Even though this is one of the slower editions of the Norwegian Derby we’ve ever experienced going in. Trainer Hyldmo hasn’t been firing this season, but a victory here would have changed everything for his part.
- White Heart: Victory in his first carreer run and that is the Derby trial is very good, and it means he is unexposed. Expect him to move forward quite a bit from that performance. However, he has still about 14 lengths to make up to the best we have seen from Stroxx Carlras, so he probably has to move forward quite a lot to win here too. That Carlos Lopez has chosen White Heart is obviously a big plus. The yard of Petersen proved great form on the Danish Derby Day – we expect to see White Heart getting close to Stroxx Carlras in this race.
- Captain Chorus: Been very good throughout his three-year season, and was perhaps our early favourite to win the Norwegian Derby 2021. We had expected him to take it to another level, and feel he has lacked som development since May. Hope to see him going at maximum of his potential on Sunday. Ran his best performance “under the radar” in the Swedish Derby 2021, and proved at Øvrevoll last time that he has kept his fine form back home. Must improve somewhat to win, but is certainly capable of it. Maybe they had wished for some rain?
- My Birdie: Unexposed with only two races in his career – one as a two-year-old and one as a three-year-old. Won his three-year-old debut quite convincingly, but the opposition was nothing special. Faces a lot tougher competition here, and should be much improved if they have any ambitions. We have to call him a wild card.
- Noble Justice: He was very good as a 2-year-old, but the development has stopped somewhat. Has still won two tough races lately where he really had to work for it, and the most important thing is to win after all. The performance in those victories is still 15 lengths behind Stroxx Carlras in the Swedish Derby… We expect him to show us the very best of him now. The aforementioned Niels Petersen is an expert at this.
- Zeraphine: Opened her career with two great victories on the turf at Øvrevoll, though they seemed slow. The development has just not been there since, and the second race of her career is still her best, allthough she duplicated that now. Got a hard time seeing her improve by 20 lengths for this race.
- All About Us: Another Petersen horse that debuted late. Looked solid in his first races, with two nice 2nd places, but seems to be at a level below the best here. Lightly raced.
- Purple Ace: Chapeau for that insane streak at Øvrevoll with 6 of 6 victories. In a row! Unfortunately, it seems to stop here, as he faces far more competition than he has ever done before? Has also given the impression of being a horse for shorter distances than 2400 meters, although it handled 2100 meters on the dirt track at Bro very well at the end of June. Not raced since, and that race was career best! Exciting to see him running in this field, but with that Øvrevoll-streak it’s hard to see the value in the betting!
- Mowaaman: Late debut, very unexposed and difficult to assess. Hard task from track 13. Been beaten by several in this race in all his entries.
- Enge Hazard: Given steady performances all the way and lacked some development. Looks like a horse for a lower level than this.
- Alligate: Came in very late to this and debuted as late as July. High expectations, but disappointed somewhat in the debut. Far better in his second start out, in the Derby trial. Difficult to assess. Needs a lot of development still to be in it for the win. Gate 15 does not help either.
Don't just take our word for it! Do your own analyzes here:
- At the Derby distance, 2400m, one “point” in performance figures, i.e. one unit of our performance figures, equals to approximately 1 horse length in difference. A performance figure of 111, was 1 length faster than a performance figure of 110. You’ll find the long explanation of our figures here.
- Ground loss is also an important factor for us. If you have got ideas about horses that you think will end up wide, then you can calculate in a one length penalty for every lane out from the rail in the turns. Such ideas can, for example, be backed up with our post position statistics . (PS: Sometimes, and on some devices, you have to refresh the page for the pp statistics to appear. We have no idea why, but we investigate the problem.)
- Keep in mind that 3yo’s at this time of year are in full development, so what a horse has done does not necessarily reveal the truth of what a horse is going to do . Therefore, it is something of an art form to interpret performance figures for derhy horses. What do you think is a good profile for a Derby horse before a Derby race? Feel free to leave a comment!
Did you come here to get betting suggestions, anyway !?
Well, since it’s the Derby !
PS. For Scandinavian horse racing tips in general, we recommend checking out www.galopptips.eu , www.ledvolten.se , www.galopptips.se , and www.ovrevoll.no . These sites provides tips of high quality. You should even chech out twitter and our forum, specially now with the betting competition. It’s okay to start out by listening to experts and tipsters, and then you should gradually trust your own thoughts more and more.
- Stroxx Carlras as the winner, and exacta and trifecta-combinations with Stroxx Carlras, Captain Chorus and White Heart. I also want to use Lot of Joy in third place. I’ll weight my exactas and trifectas so that the best case for me is Stroxx Carlras winning, with Captain Chorus just behind in second.
- The most likely winner of the race is Stroxx Carlras. He just needs to be as good on the turf at Øvrevoll on sunday, as he was at Jägersro in the Swedish Derby, to win this race. Maybe a few times out of 100, that will not be enough because of a super start hiding in the form somewhere. One should try to estimate a probability on that Stroxx will be able to repeat. Is it 70% likely? Hardly. 50% likely? Hardly so either, given that the horse wouldn’t even be a contender if you wipe out the effort in the Swedish Derby from his career. 30%? This is closer. Maybe even a little lower than that, too. 30% chance of winning indicates a so-called implied odds of 3.33. Say we lock the win probability in at 27% then. Then you have to let the tote board decide. This means that you’ll need 3.7 in odds or better, to bet Stroxx Carlras as your Derby winner. Unless you know something, which I do not yet know. These are the kind of tips you’ll get from me!
- It’s actually a little early to publish some betting tips for Derby, as we have very few indications about where the market will go. Since the Derby is not included in the V64, we’ll have few clues before a few hours before the race. I stated earlier this year that we do not understand how Noble Justice could be a possible Derby favorite. He may never have been. As an outsider, though, he has really grown on me. This year’s edition of the Norwegian Derby at Øvrevoll is almost sensationally slow. There are established, older hcp 75 horses out there that I had not hesitated to include in a trifecta-wager. Noble Justice will be as far from a “speed figure bet” as you could get, but one shouldn’t be too dogmatic with these numbers either. Style and context also means something, and the more I look behind the figures for Noble Justice, the better I like him. The distance is a big question mark, of course, but he seemed so strong last time out when not cracking under pressure after what was a really grueling race. Most horses would have cracked in that spot. Maybe he should be able to defend a 15% chance of winning? This means that you’ll need odds at about 6/1 or more, to be able to bet him to win. You can even take a little less than that, if you really feel it in your gut.
- There isn’t more to separate between the “good and the bad” in this race, than that everyone could win with a substantial forward move. This was what happened with Stroxx Carlras in the Swedish Derby. There is, statistically, the biggest chance for it being Niels Petersen’s most trusted horses that improve the most, but it’s not certain. If you have a little flair like me for the great stories, then there are two of these potential stories on Sunday that could also make sense in terms of betting. Lot of Joy is a mare, and mares do not often win Derbies. But it happens. High As A Kite did it, for example, in 2017, in what was also an unusually “slow” version beforehand. That was also the first female jockey winner of a derby, with Vanessa Ryall, actually in the world. That was a good story! This year it would have been Jan-Erik Neuroth stealing the headlines. He has worked so hard to win a Derby at his home track for many years now, so it is easy to cheer for him. Lot of Joy has a very exciting profile, on Sunday. Not at all unthinkable. After playing around a bit with percentages of all contestants, so that they add up to a total of 100% chance of winning, I’m left with a 9% chance for Lot of Joy. In that case you’ll need 10/1 to back Jan-Erik in his hunt for the win. The second story that would have been fun to experience is the one about Purple Ace . I’m not quite as sure as my brother that Purple Ace can’t be forgotten in the markets. Norwegian born as he is. If I were in the shoes of Cahtrine Erichsen and Martin Rodriguez, I would have had winning ambitions on Sunday. They probably have that, too. Percentage wise? Well.. I’m left with 7%. In terms of profile, there is almost no one better in this year’s edition of Derby. The big question is of course whether he’ll be stating the full 2400 meters, and whether he has that amount of improvement left in him as his competitors have. With a 7% chance of winning, you’ll need 13/1 in odds to be backing. If one gets that odds, it must be some sort of a world record for a horse that has run 6 races on a track, and won them all.